Week 6 had some definite highs and lows throughout an overall high scoring NFL week. The injury bug continues to hit star players with Aaron Rodgers, Emmanuel Sanders, and Golden Tate all likely to miss extended period of time. Rodgers has even been confirmed out for the season. Combine all of this with the latest Zeke news that he will maybe-probably-likely-will-be-suspended-eventually-but-not-for-another-two-weeks, fantasy owners are scrambling to the waiver wire for all the help they can get. We’re about halfway through the fantasy football regular season, and it’s never too late to make improvements to your team. Let’s delve into this week’s target share statistics.
|Player||Week 6||Average Target Market Share/Game||Standard Deviation||Target Score|
Week 6 Notables:
Larry Fitzgerald (50.00%) – There’s not much to analyze when it comes to Larry Fitzgerald’s career. He’s a sure-fire HOFer and a consistent producer for your fantasy teams every year. Like a fine wine, it seems Larry has gotten even better with age. I want to highlight him here from what we saw in week six – the ability to still absolutely dominate targets and a game. Fitzgerald has had some low target share games this season with 16.67% and 13.73% in weeks two and four, respectively. But as we saw this past week, he still has that game changing ability. If you’re a contender in a dynasty league, I wouldn’t hesitate at all to give a 2nd round pick plus something else to acquire his services for the rest of the season.
Davante Adams (27.03%) – Adams and the rest of the Green Bay Packers wide receivers are going to be without their star QB Aaron Rodgers for the remainder of the season. Likely replacement Brett Hundley is an unknown at this point, but if week six is any indication of how he wants to distribute the ball moving forward, Adams could stand to be the top receiver in GB from this point on. From when Hundley entered the game on Sunday, Adams recorded a roughly 30% target share – he was the main guy Hundley looked to, and even targeted him in the redzone for that touchdown grab. If any of your league mates are worried about Adams because of the Rodgers news, now is the time to pounce.
Season long notables:
Marqise Lee – Lee has very quietly been one of the most consistent producers on a target share basis this season. While only WR46 in ppr scoring this year so far, Lee has been a focal point of the Jaguars passing offense. Leonard Fournette is far and away the focal point of the offense as a whole, but Lee has emerged as the consistent second overall option. The touchdowns haven’t been there for Lee thus far, but I think that will change moving forward. He sticks out on the target score list as someone who you could buy for significantly cheaper than the other options and get a similar target share opportunity. He’s one of my favorite bench stashes for the rest of the season.
Adam Thielan – I’ve written about Thielan now multiple times, but his consistency and production at a high level continues to amaze me. With the injury history Stefon Diggs has, the seemingly forever development of Laquon Treadwell, and now lack of any star pass catching back with Dalvin Cook’s injury, Thielan has al the opportunity in the world to continue this borderline elite season. He currently ranks as the WR13 and hasn’t scored a touchdown this season! He’s a buy-high for me wherever I can get him both for ROS and Dynasty,
Analyzing targets via market share is essential to understanding the complete picture, but when it comes down to it, gross target numbers are key to fantasy success as well. Player X having 5 targets, but a higher market share, is less likely to outperform Player Y who had 8 targets but a lower overall market share. In the long run, market share will indicate performance during the ups and downs of the fantasy season. Gross targets, however, indicate the chances for success in any given week. More targets are always better than fewer targets for possible fantasy production, as opportunity is a key indicator for success. With that in mind, here are the top 36 WRs* with the most targets-to-date in 2017.
*Note – There are actually 38 receivers listed; there was a drop off after 35 targets, so I’ve included all players who have at least 29 targets on the season.
*All data courtesy of Pro Football Reference*