Target Leaders Analysis – Week 6

108

Week 6 had some definite highs and lows throughout an overall high scoring NFL week. The injury bug continues to hit star players with Aaron Rodgers, Emmanuel Sanders, and Golden Tate all likely to miss extended period of time. Rodgers has even been confirmed out for the season. Combine all of this with the latest Zeke news that he will maybe-probably-likely-will-be-suspended-eventually-but-not-for-another-two-weeks, fantasy owners are scrambling to the waiver wire for all the help they can get. We’re about halfway through the fantasy football regular season, and it’s never too late to make improvements to your team. Let’s delve into this week’s target share statistics.

Player Week 6  Average Target Market Share/Game Standard Deviation Target Score
DeAndre Hopkins 13.79% 35.11% 14.39% 20.31
Jarvis Landry 42.42% 34.60% 9.39% 29.31
Antonio Brown 40.00% 33.74% 3.85% 64.32
A.J. Green 32.54% 10.43% 20.25
Larry Fitzgerald 50.00% 26.91% 13.03% 6.08
Keenan Allen 25.00% 26.61% 2.83% 26.16
Adam Thielen 34.21% 26.19% 6.38% 10.50
Dez Bryant 24.90% 9.70% 4.90
Mike Evans 19.05% 24.88% 6.13% 7.71
Demaryius Thomas 25.93% 24.25% 3.55% 10.96
T.Y. Hilton 10.81% 24.17% 10.21% 3.72
Odell Beckham 24.03% 6.59% 5.50
Rishard Matthews 12.50% 23.83% 10.02% 3.38
Emmanuel Sanders 14.81% 23.59% 8.60% 3.62
Marqise Lee 28.57% 23.54% 9.36% 3.27
Michael Thomas 19.35% 23.52% 3.54% 8.59
Michael Crabtree 33.33% 23.42% 9.32% 3.14
Pierre Garcon 25.53% 23.31% 4.87% 5.78
Alshon Jeffery 33.33% 23.01% 7.41% 3.37
Tyreek Hill 20.59% 22.57% 8.09% 2.57
Julio Jones 20.00% 22.52% 10.49% 1.94
Davante Adams 27.03% 22.40% 8.74% 2.21
Stefon Diggs 21.99% 8.19% 1.94
Devin Funchess 17.31% 21.61% 8.75% 1.48
Jordy Nelson 27.03% 21.44% 5.37% 2.19
Golden Tate 13.46% 20.87% 5.80% 1.41
Amari Cooper 20.00% 20.86% 10.96% 0.74
Robert Woods 33.33% 20.68% 7.11% 1.00
Robby Anderson 25.53% 20.59% 4.35% 1.53
DeVante Parker 20.24% 11.34% 0.44
Doug Baldwin 20.22% 7.44% 0.66
Jeremy Maclin 19.95% 7.40% 0.51
Mohamed Sanu 18.93% 9.50% 0.09
Eric Decker 28.13% 18.42% 5.90% 0.03
Corey Coleman 18.33% 2.36% 0.04
Kelvin Benjamin 25.00% 18.01% 7.24% 0.00

 

Week 6 Notables:

Larry Fitzgerald (50.00%) – There’s not much to analyze when it comes to Larry Fitzgerald’s career. He’s a sure-fire HOFer and a consistent producer for your fantasy teams every year. Like a fine wine, it seems Larry has gotten even better with age. I want to highlight him here from what we saw in week six – the ability to still absolutely dominate targets and a game. Fitzgerald has had some low target share games this season with 16.67% and 13.73% in weeks two and four, respectively. But as we saw this past week, he still has that game changing ability. If you’re a contender in a dynasty league, I wouldn’t hesitate at all to give a 2nd round pick plus something else to acquire his services for the rest of the season.

Davante Adams (27.03%) – Adams and the rest of the Green Bay Packers wide receivers are going to be without their star QB Aaron Rodgers for the remainder of the season. Likely replacement Brett Hundley is an unknown at this point, but if week six is any indication of how he wants to distribute the ball moving forward, Adams could stand to be the top receiver in GB from this point on. From when Hundley entered the game on Sunday, Adams recorded a roughly 30% target share – he was the main guy Hundley looked to, and even targeted him in the redzone for that touchdown grab. If any of your league mates are worried about Adams because of the Rodgers news, now is the time to pounce.

Season long notables:

Marqise Lee – Lee has very quietly been one of the most consistent producers on a target share basis this season. While only WR46 in ppr scoring this year so far, Lee has been a focal point of the Jaguars passing offense. Leonard Fournette is far and away the focal point of the offense as a whole, but Lee has emerged as the consistent second overall option. The touchdowns haven’t been there for Lee thus far, but I think that will change moving forward. He sticks out on the target score list as someone who you could buy for significantly cheaper than the other options and get a similar target share opportunity. He’s one of my favorite bench stashes for the rest of the season.

Adam Thielan – I’ve written about Thielan now multiple times, but his consistency and production at a high level continues to amaze me. With the injury history Stefon Diggs has, the seemingly forever development of Laquon Treadwell, and now lack of any star pass catching back with Dalvin Cook’s injury, Thielan has al the opportunity in the world to continue this borderline elite season. He currently ranks as the WR13 and hasn’t scored a touchdown this season! He’s a buy-high for me wherever I can get him both for ROS and Dynasty,

Target Leaders:

Analyzing targets via market share is essential to understanding the complete picture, but when it comes down to it, gross target numbers are key to fantasy success as well. Player X having 5 targets, but a higher market share, is less likely to outperform Player Y who had 8 targets but a lower overall market share. In the long run, market share will indicate performance during the ups and downs of the fantasy season. Gross targets, however, indicate the chances for success in any given week. More targets are always better than fewer targets for possible fantasy production, as opportunity is a key indicator for success.  With that in mind, here are the top 36 WRs* with the most targets-to-date in 2017.

*Note – There are actually 38 receivers listed; there was a drop off after 35 targets, so I’ve included all players who have at least 29 targets on the season.

 

 Player 2017 Total
Antonio Brown 74
DeAndre Hopkins 65
Larry Fitzgerald 62
Keenan Allen 61
Jarvis Landry 57
Pierre Garcon 56
Adam Thielen 53
A.J. Green 51
Davante Adams 49
Mike Evans 48
Alshon Jeffery 48
Dez Bryant 48
Golden Tate 47
Demaryius Thomas 44
Devin Funchess 44
Michael Thomas 43
Rishard Matthews 42
Emmanuel Sanders 42
Brandin Cooks 41
Chris Hogan 41
Robby Anderson 41
T.Y. Hilton 41
Tyreek Hill 41
Odell Beckham 41
Marqise Lee 40
Marvin Jones 40
Doug Baldwin 39
Amari Cooper 39
Kelvin Benjamin 38
Jordy Nelson 38
Robert Woods 37
Julio Jones 37
Jaron Brown 36
Stefon Diggs 36
Ricardo Louis 35
Eric Decker 35
Marquise Goodwin 35
DeSean Jackson 35

 

*All data courtesy of Pro Football Reference*