Target Leaders Analysis – Week 7

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We’ve officially passed the halfway point in most of your fantasy football regular seasons. By now, you likely know where your team’s strengths and weaknesses lie. Do not be fooled; it’s not too late to make adjustments and trades to push you to the next level. I’ve seen countless examples over the years of 2-5 teams rallying to make the playoffs. In one of my leagues last year, an 0-7 team wound up winning its next 6 games. The team ultimately failed to make the playoffs by 1 game, but it serves as a reminder that your season isn’t over until you’ve been officially eliminated. Hopefully the takeaways from this and more articles from Touchdown Fantasy can help your teams make that final push. Let’s get into our WR analysis.

Player Week 7  Average Target Share/Game Standard Deviation Target Score
DeAndre Hopkins 35.11% 14.39% 19.56
Antonio Brown 40.00% 34.63% 4.23% 62.77
Jarvis Landry 29.73% 33.79% 8.64% 27.69
A.J. Green 20.00% 30.45% 10.64% 13.81
Adam Thielen 38.71% 27.98% 7.50% 12.41
Dez Bryant 37.04% 26.93% 9.99% 7.39
Keenan Allen 26.92% 26.66% 2.58% 26.83
Julio Jones 39.39% 25.34% 11.64% 4.22
Mike Evans 22.73% 24.52% 5.55% 6.91
Michael Thomas 28.95% 24.43% 3.86% 9.62
Larry Fitzgerald 9.38% 24.40% 13.61% 2.71
Odell Beckham 24.03% 6.59% 4.93
T.Y. Hilton 21.62% 23.81% 9.37% 3.20
Emmanuel Sanders 23.59% 8.60% 3.22
Marqise Lee 22.22% 23.36% 8.56% 2.95
Amari Cooper 36.54% 23.10% 11.63% 1.96
Demaryius Thomas 17.14% 23.06% 4.30% 5.21
Alshon Jeffery 23.01% 7.41% 2.95
Rishard Matthews 17.65% 22.95% 9.44% 2.26
Pierre Garcon 18.42% 22.62% 4.81% 3.82
Tyreek Hill 22.22% 22.52% 7.38% 2.37
Davante Adams 20.00% 22.06% 8.03% 1.73
Stefon Diggs 21.99% 8.19% 1.64
Doug Baldwin 30.77% 21.98% 7.93% 1.68
Devin Funchess 23.53% 21.88% 8.03% 1.57
Michael Crabtree 13.46% 21.76% 9.27% 1.27
Mohamed Sanu 30.30% 21.20% 9.67% 0.85
Golden Tate 20.87% 5.80% 1.11
Jordy Nelson 16.00% 20.54% 5.30% 0.92
Robert Woods 18.92% 20.43% 6.52% 0.67
Robby Anderson 18.52% 20.30% 4.05% 0.95
DeVante Parker 20.24% 11.34% 0.32
Jeremy Maclin 19.95% 7.40% 0.36
Allen Hurns 29.63% 19.56% 8.34% 0.18
Zay Jones 27.27% 19.08% 7.58% 0.07
Corey Coleman 18.33% 2.36% 0.00

 

Week 7 Notables:

Amari Cooper (36.54%) Two weeks ago I wrote about Cooper as someone to not lose faith in. He was clearly struggling, but the slump was never going to last long with an elite talent like Amari Cooper. If you had faith and kept starting him, props to you – you were rewarded handsomely this week with a likely W thanks to a 44 point PPR effort. When I ran the analysis for this week, I was surprised that Cooper wasn’t over a 40% target share given he had 19 on the day. He was absolutely more efficient with his targets this week, but this target share isn’t necessarily dominant. There have been multiple receivers to post 40%+ target share games – Cooper even did it back in week 1! This was certainly a huge step forward for Cooper after a disappointing start, and there’s even more upside to be had in the coming weeks with regard to target share.

Allen Hurns (29.63%) – Hurns isn’t on the most prolific passing offense in the league by any imagination, but he’s certainly making the most of his opportunity. In 3 out of the last 4 games, including week 7 where he was a focal point of the passing attack, Hurns has posted greater than 21% target share. He’s quietly the WR31 on the season, making him at least borderline startable in the majority of fantasy leagues up to this point. I wrote about Marqise Lee last week as another piece of this offense that I like, but Hurns is the guy I would target specifically if my team is in the need of a big play guy throughout the rest of the bye weeks or from injury.

Zay Jones (27.27%) – This isn’t the first time I’ve written about Zay, and it’s likely not the last. There’s good and bad in every week with him. He’s extremely inefficient with his targets – that part is inarguable. However, the targets have been there rather consistently. Judging purely based on opportunity, it’s hard to give up on Zay just yet. We’re 7 games now into his professional career, and those (like me) who selecting him in the high second round of rookie drafts are surely disappointed. I maintain that there’s hope with Zay though. He was a dominant force in college, catching nearly everything his way. I think it’ll just take one game for him to regain that form, but we can’t keep waiting forever. He likely belongs on waivers at this point or if you’re in a deep league at the end of your bench, but keep an eye out for that big game (eventually).

Target Leaders:

Analyzing targets via market share is essential to understanding the complete picture, but when it comes down to it, gross target numbers are key to fantasy success as well. Player X having 5 targets, but a higher market share, is less likely to outperform Player Y who had 8 targets but a lower overall market share. In the long run, market share will indicate performance during the ups and downs of the fantasy season. Gross targets, however, indicate the chances for success in any given week. More targets are always better than fewer targets for possible fantasy production, as opportunity is a key indicator for success.  With that in mind, here are the top 36 WRs with the most targets-to-date in 2017.

 Players 2017 Total
Antonio Brown 84
Keenan Allen 68
Jarvis Landry 68
Adam Thielen 65
Larry Fitzgerald 65
DeAndre Hopkins 65
Pierre Garcon 63
Mike Evans 58
Dez Bryant 58
Amari Cooper 58
A.J. Green 57
Michael Thomas 54
Davante Adams 54
Devin Funchess 52
Doug Baldwin 51
Demaryius Thomas 50
Julio Jones 50
Tyreek Hill 49
T.Y. Hilton 49
Rishard Matthews 48
Alshon Jeffery 48
Golden Tate 47
Chris Hogan 47
Brandin Cooks 46
Robby Anderson 46
Marqise Lee 46
Robert Woods 44
Kelvin Benjamin 44
Marquise Goodwin 43
DeSean Jackson 43
Emmanuel Sanders 42
Cooper Kupp 42
Jordy Nelson 42
Odell Beckham 41
Jaron Brown 41
Michael Crabtree 41

 

*All data courtesy of Pro Football Reference*